Mets: Stearns’ Thesis, Tested in a Lost Season
The 2026 New York Mets finished 74-88, fifth in the National League East and 20 games behind Atlanta. Against a championship payroll, that is a failed operating year, and a poor instrument for pricing 2027. Rented innings were depreciated in full. The deadline converted duration the club could no longer underwrite into prospects.
What remained was a pre-arbitration core that did not exist as a major-league holding when David Stearns arrived. MLB Pipeline’s All-Rookie teams are the cleanest external mark on that group.
Carson Benge earned first-team honors in right field, A.J. Ewing second team in center, and Nolan McLean second team in the rotation. Three All-Rookie selections from a last-place roster signal concentration of talent.
This doesn’t signal a locked-down pennant just yet, but it is a foundation the club no longer needs to buy.
The Milwaukee Model
Milwaukee is the control group. The Brewers, still running the development model Stearns built, finished 103-59 and opened the Division Series as the higher seed.
New York did not match Milwaukee’s win total, but they have begun to replicate the model: identify, develop, and deploy players who outperform their acquisition cost.
The Mets face a higher cost of capital than Milwaukee, and Juan Soto’s contract sets a baseline the Brewers’ model never had to clear. The 2026 results and Stearns’ postseason analysis support a focused conclusion: the missing piece is a true, veteran ace.
The young core—Benge in right, Ewing in center, McLean, Christian Scott, and Jonah Tong anchoring the rotation—fills the assignable roles behind whatever arm arrives this winter.
Everyday Right Fielder: Carson Benge
Benge is locked in as the everyday right fielder for 2027, with his numbers justifying a spot in the top three of the order.
His .346 OBP, 22 steals, and 20 long balls generate runs at the top; those assets are wasted lower in the lineup.
Leadoff fits if steals are maximized ahead of Soto, but hitting second behind Francisco Lindor extends RBI opportunities. His walk rate is already sufficient—138 times on base is enough to justify either role.
At 23, the 2024 first-rounder played 156 games and hit .282/.346/.430 with 20 home runs, 22 steals, 50 walks, and 168 hits. He posted a .776 OPS, 118 OPS+, .341 BABIP, and 4.3 bWAR—third among rookie position players.
He is the first Met with a 20-20 rookie season and now holds the franchise rookie hits record. After a sub-.200 April, he adjusted to velocity and hit .315/.381/.497 with nine home runs over his final 62 games.
That surge put him second on the NL Rookie of the Year board, trailing only Sal Stewart, whose RBI volume is the only threat.
Benge’s two-way-non-two-way profile is rare: 20-20, 4.3 WAR, 81 percent steal rate, and multiple outfield assists over 100 mph.
His arm saves runs; his speed creates them.
Center Field Pillar: A.J. Ewing
Ewing is the everyday center fielder and a top-of-the-order candidate.
At 21, he played 120 games, hit .252/.324/.376 with 11 home runs, a 97 OPS+, and stole 25 bases in 33 tries, breaking Mookie Wilson’s rookie record.
His 3.1 WAR is driven by defense and baserunning.
After a midseason slump, he rebounded with a .309 September. Pipeline’s second-team selection reflects that trajectory. Ewing hits left, uses the opposite field, steals on reads, and covers ground.
Eleven home runs is a fair projection of solid contact. But his true value is measured in outs saved and bases taken, not just the slash line.
Dynamic Duo: Nolan McLean and Christian Scott
McLean and Scott are the first legitimate young rotation pairing this club has had in the Cohen Era, combined for about 290 innings at a mid-threes ERA, and Scott’s half came with a new repertoire from his 2024 debut.
Ace2: The Cowboy
McLean is the No. 2 if an ace arrives, undeniably No. 1 if not. He made 31 starts, threw 179.2 innings (sixth in the NL), and ranked 14th in MLB in both innings and strikeouts.
His line: 12-10, 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 194 strikeouts, 70 walks, 3.59 FIP, and about three WAR over 20 quality starts.
The ERA-FIP gap shows he outperformed his contact and walk profile. His 3.5 BB/9 limited his ceiling; only May exceeded 3.75.
He mixes a 95 mph sinker, a slightly harder four-seamer, and a full secondary arsenal. He pitches to contact early, then expands with the breaker. The walk rate did not cost him innings, but it kept him out of Cy Young contention.
If his two-strike command improves, he could lead that conversation next season. At $800,000 and pre-arbitration, McLean’s 2026 sample changes the rotation calculus. The goal next season is for him to reach the sixth and avoid early exits consistently.
Great Scott
Scott belongs in the same tier, discounted for injury. After missing 2025 post-Tommy John, he made 23 starts and threw 110 innings: 3.85 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 105 ERA+, 134 strikeouts, 47 walks, 1.7 WAR.
His 11.0 K/9 is a clear asset; the walk rate and five-inning average are the drawbacks. His ERA stayed near 3.00 through July before rising as his innings faded, a typical post-surgery pattern.
Most notably, Scott introduced a cutter to replace his slider this season. He also added a two-seamer (slower than the four-seamer and running in on right-handers), delivering three iterations of fastballs from the same slot and at similar speeds, but finishing in very different places to round out his revamped pitch-mix.
He projects as a No. 3 in 2027, capable of covering half the innings if he stays ahead in counts. His constraints are pitch count and health, not repertoire.
Pleasant Surprise: Zac Thornton
Zac Thornton was the unexpected fourth name, and a full major-league season is the right bet for 2027.
The 24-year-old left-hander, recalled for good in July after a May debut, made 15 starts and pitched 84.1 innings with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, striking out 63 while allowing only 18 walks.
His 4.50 FIP says the run prevention ran a little ahead of his stuff. But his 1.9 BB/9 is the skill that travels. A 6.7 strikeout rate can and is expected to rise with a full year of major-league sequencing. He is no longer a July patch. He is a left-handed turn the Mets did not have in April, and a 30-start season in 2027 is the role his second half already justified.
Strong Contenders: Tong, Morabito, Wenninger
The rest of the group remains optionality for now.
Tong’s case for 2027 is innings, not another year of Triple-A refinement. He’s a strikeout machine—the command variance is the item that only major-league turns will settle, and the scales now tip toward a rotation look, with long relief as the floor if the strike-throwing does not hold across a full turn.
Nick Morabito’s 18-game September at .195 does not yet confirm his speed-and-defense profile.
Jack Wenninger is upper-level depth if the team needs innings.
Each could matter in July without requiring a midseason acquisition. Early signs point to more development needed, but the major league promise is evident.
None of this alters the winter priority.
Rooted in the Farm
The most encouraging signs in a 74-88 season came from the young core, not the allocated payroll. Benge, Ewing, and McLean made MLB Pipeline’s All-Rookie teams. Scott contributed 110 innings at a mid-threes ERA, with a platoon split that improved from crisis to manageable. Tong offers versatility on the staff. There is depth at nearly every position.
This cohort signals that a postseason push isn’t contingent on a roster assembled only through acquisition. Sustained competitiveness comes from a young core.
2027’s Shorter Shopping List
Stearns’ organizational philosophy operates on a time horizon that produces championships, not just payroll commitments. The 2027 holes are significant, and the front office has already identified the biggest: a front-end starter.
Still, this core has shortened the shopping list.
A controlled core in its early twenties, set against the decade-plus left on Soto’s contract, has compressed the franchise’s acquisition risk to its most manageable form.
When the internal answer exists at a position, capital is used for short-term complements, not long-term anchors. A short-term complement fills a defined hole for a defined window. The contract contains the risk; the core remains when it expires.
They’re the purchases a franchise can afford to miss on.
A promising young core makes that tolerance possible—and the Mets, entering 2027, have one for the first time.
