Looking ahead to this week’s matchups
Now that the regular season has officially wrapped with the New York Giants deep in a head coaching search and the Jets still trying to locate any resemblance of a professional football team, there isn’t a ton of breaking news (yet). But that’s fine, because it’s Wildcard Weekend in the National Football League (NFL), and locally, we still have one team with a pulse: the Philadelphia Eagles.
Let’s break down this weekend’s matchups and get into some predictions. You know me, I usually like to pick against the spread, but because I’m in a good mood now that the regular season is finally over, I’ll give you both straight-up picks and Against the Spread (ATS).
Saturday Slate:
Rams vs. Panthers
Let me be clear: no team from the NFC South should be hosting a playoff game. But I don’t make the rules. If I did, we wouldn’t see an eight-win team with home-field advantage in January.
Matt Stafford is having an MVP-type season and has weapons everywhere with Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and now the return of Davante Adams. The Panthers, meanwhile, have sputtered over their last four games, averaging just 16 points per contest. The Rams? They’ve averaged 35.1 points per game over their last seven.
And people are wondering why the spread is so big.
Yes, Carolina beat the Rams earlier in the season. But this is the postseason, and Stafford and Sean McVay are coming to town with one goal: winning the Super Bowl. Carolina is simply a stop on the road to Levi’s Stadium.
Straight Up: Rams
ATS: Rams win and cover (-10.5)
Packers vs. Bears
When one of the league’s most historic rivalries is running hot, it’s good for football and the Bears have completely reignited this thing. What’s better than Green Bay and Chicago battling for a spot in the NFC Divisional Round?
I’ll tell you what: playing it in Chicago, in 20-degree weather, with rain, snow, and wind in the forecast.
January football.
Speaking of Love…can Jordan Love deliver against the Bears? Chicago hasn’t been to the postseason since 2020 and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2011. Green Bay, on the other hand, lives here. That postseason experience matters.
Love has played in bigger games than Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, which gives Green Bay a slight edge. Expect Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to have his unit ready even without Micah Parsons.
That said, Chicago has completely turned things around. They’re running hot, they’re the underdog, and plenty of people still think they’re frauds.
And if there’s one thing I know, it’s never to count out the underdog.
Caleb Williams makes a late play, puts the Bears in field goal range, and Chicago lives to fight another day.
Straight Up: Bears
ATS: Bears +1.5
Sunday Slate:
Bills vs. Jaguars
I don’t love this matchup for Buffalo and I doubt they do either.
This marks the seventh straight postseason appearance for the Bills, but this time they’re doing it as the No. 6 seed. I told you all season that the Patriots would be a thorn in Buffalo’s side, and sure enough, here we are.
Now the Bills head into Jacksonville to face a red-hot Jags team whose offense has completely resurged.
Buffalo needs to take a hard look at its roster. It’s old, stale, and tired. The defense can’t stop anyone let alone the run, and offensively, the over-reliance on Josh Allen has been an issue I’ve been screaming about for years.
Does that finally catch up to them this weekend? To a degree. Yes.
But Josh Allen is still good enough to keep pace with Jacksonville’s offense and mask some of Buffalo’s flaws, at least for one more week.
Jacksonville will give them everything they have, but Allen will have just a little more.
Straight Up: Bills
ATS: Jaguars +1.5
49ers vs. Eagles
It’s not easy to win in Philly. And knowing that alone gives the Eagles a psychological edge which absolutely matters in January.
Based on the Eagles fans on social media, you’d think the Eagles were as bad as the Jets or Giants. Instead, they’re fresh off a Super Bowl win and just a few victories away from another appearance. What I wouldn’t give to have those “problems” in New York.
To be fair, the Eagles’ offense left a lot to be desired for much of the season. Lately, though, they seem to be working through those issues and peaking at the right time. Defensively, Vic Fangio has them ranked in the top half of the league.
The 49ers are banged up on defense, Brock Purdy is dealing with a hand injury, and while Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are healthy, Fangio will do everything he can to neutralize them.
That duo while dynamic won’t be enough to leave Philly with a win.
Saquon Barkley exposes the Niners’ defense, and the Eagles take care of business at home.
Straight Up: Eagles
ATS: Eagles win and cover (-4.5)
Chargers vs. Patriots
Where Nikki was right…sorry. A little Colin Cowherd slipped out there.
I’m no Patriots fan, but I’ve been on the New England train since August, and at this point, I’m riding it until the wheels fall off.
Mike Vrabel has completely turned this organization around which is a reminder of just how important coaching actually is. Last season, the Patriots finished 4–13. This year? 14–3. Drake Maye is having an MVP-caliber season and leading New England to its first playoff appearance since 2021.
Coaching matters.
That said, the Chargers aren’t pushovers. Jim Harbaugh has them disciplined, their defense ranks second in interception rate, and Justin Herbert is one of the league’s best outside the pocket touchdown passers.
If New England wants to win, they’ll need to contain and pressure Herbert early and often.
It will be tough but Drake Maye is tougher. That Patriots defense shows up when it matters most.
Straight Up: Patriots
ATS: Chargers +3.5
Monday Slate:
Texans vs. Steelers
Another rule I’d make if I could? No Monday night game on Wildcard Weekend. But since I don’t run the league and ESPN probably paid a fortune for this game here we are.
Credit to Mike Tomlin for always finding a way to reach the postseason. But I give more credit to Tyler Loop here. If he makes that kick, John Harbaugh still has a job and maybe we are talking about Mike Tomlin potentially coaching the Giants.
The concern with Pittsburgh is simple: the offense isn’t good enough.
Yes, DK Metcalf is back. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers. And yes, they’re facing a Texans team that just won nine straight games.
I know what you’re thinking and the answer is: Yes. The Steelers are going one-and-done.
For what it’s worth, I pegged the entire AFC North as one-and-done teams. There wasn’t very good football played in that division this season, but someone had to “win” it. If you want to call it that.
The Texans’ defense is elite and will make Rodgers feel every bit of his age come Tuesday moring. C.J. Stroud plays a clean game, Nico Collins comes up big, and DeMeco Ryans brings some Texas heat to Pittsburgh.
Straight Up: Texans
ATS: Texans win and cover (-3)
Enjoy the games this weekend and keep it here for more NFL postseason coverage.
