Wildcard Weekend has come and gone, and if you were following along with my straight-up picks, you were sitting pretty at 5–1, right there with me. This past weekend was one of the better Wildcard slates in recent memory, with nearly every game coming down to the wire except for Texans vs. Steelers.
Also, while we’re here… can someone please get Justin Herbert an offensive line this offseason? Thank you in advance.
My favorite game of Wildcard Weekend was Bears vs. Packers. Not only is it one of the best rivalries in the NFL, but it ended in dramatic, chaotic fashion. Just the way I like it. You know it’s a great game when you don’t even have a dog in the fight and you’re still on the edge of your seat.
Now that the Divisional Round is set, let’s take a look at the matchups and make this week’s picks.
Saturday, January 17
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
Credit to Sean Payton, who has built a dominant defense and an efficient offense around Bo Nix in Denver. Buffalo is banged up, while Denver comes in rested. The Broncos have the better supporting cast, but Bo Nix is no Josh Allen.
Nix is a solid quarterback and a capable game manager. Josh Allen, on the other hand, is the Bills’ offense and then some. Once again, Allen will have to put this team on his back and be nothing short of heroic if Buffalo wants a shot at beating a Broncos team that likely feels disrespected as the No. 1 seed and a 1.5-point underdog.
Denver may be the more complete team, but Josh Allen is the more complete quarterback. And in January, that usually decides things.
Straight Up: Buffalo
ATS: Broncos +1.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Niners got me last week. I went with Philly, thinking San Francisco had too many injuries to overcome but that didn’t seem to slow them down.
This week is different.
George Kittle is out after tearing his Achilles in Philadelphia, and the Niners are still dealing with a laundry list of injuries. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off a first-round bye. While San Francisco’s offense can still be explosive, the bigger concern is the defense and just how shaky it might be.
We know Seattle’s defense won’t be shaky. This one likely comes down to a single defensive stop late. Edge to Seattle.
Straight Up: Seattle
ATS: Seattle -7
Sunday, January 18
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Monday night was not C.J. Stroud’s best showing, even though the Texans handled the Steelers. Worth noting: teams coming off a Monday night playoff win have never gone on to win another playoff game.
Drake Maye has had an MVP-caliber season, but he hasn’t faced a defense like Houston’s. The Texans pressured Aaron Rodgers relentlessly, and that means Maye will need to extend plays and create under duress. That’s easier said than done behind an offensive line ranked 25th in the league, especially against a top-10 Texans defensive front.
The status of Nico Collins remains up in the air, and while Houston found some success running the ball last week, I still don’t fully trust the Texans’ offense.
With two excellent coaches in Mike Vrabel and DeMeco Ryans, this game comes down to preparation and execution. I’ll take New England at home with a chance of snow in the forecast. And then we will all get the AFC Championship matchup we really want.
Straight Up: Patriots
ATS: Patriots -3
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears
There are few things I love more than a coach like Ben Johnson. He’s loud, confident, trash-talking, and unapologetically himself. Hmm…sounds a little familiar doesn’t it? His postgame press conference after the Green Bay win was entertaining, as was his “handshake” with Matt LaFleur.
Even more entertaining? The Bears’ ability to pull off fourth-quarter comebacks (five of them this season) thanks to Caleb Williams coming up clutch.
But you know who else is clutch? Matthew Stafford, who’s ranked among the top 10 most clutch quarterbacks since 2020.
Look for Stafford to carve up Chicago’s secondary as the Rams’ offensive weapons prove to be too much for this young Bears team.
Straight Up: Rams
ATS: Rams -3.5
Good luck this weekend, enjoy the games, and as always bet responsibly.
